Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.096154 0.107423 0.119102 0.132080 0.146068 0.160661 0.177008
2024-10-27 0.077141 0.093601 0.111662 0.132815 0.156773 0.182934 0.213521
2024-11-03 0.068734 0.089480 0.113354 0.142524 0.176866 0.215678 0.262511
2024-11-10 0.057649 0.080404 0.107817 0.142661 0.185143 0.234638 0.296013
2024-11-17 0.050017 0.074290 0.104756 0.144836 0.195178 0.255333 0.331606
2024-11-24 0.043184 0.068189 0.100829 0.145168 0.202391 0.272332 0.362768
2024-12-01 0.040536 0.067252 0.103233 0.153345 0.219373 0.301459 0.409152
2024-12-08 0.038280 0.066508 0.105635 0.161372 0.236175 0.330571 0.455989
2024-12-15 0.034078 0.062405 0.102963 0.162194 0.243294 0.347292 0.487333
2024-12-22 0.029281 0.056828 0.097681 0.158944 0.244604 0.356284 0.508748
2024-12-29 0.027584 0.055892 0.098971 0.164812 0.258250 0.381493 0.551352
2025-01-05 0.025543 0.054156 0.098875 0.168565 0.268959 0.402919 0.589300
2025-01-12 0.023186 0.051799 0.097903 0.171332 0.278880 0.424218 0.628515
2025-01-19 0.020898 0.049321 0.096584 0.173541 0.288139 0.444965 0.667644
2025-01-26 0.020855 0.050914 0.101866 0.185935 0.312363 0.486663 0.735616
2025-02-02 0.018539 0.047959 0.099470 0.186358 0.319159 0.504471 0.771697
2025-02-09 0.016885 0.046060 0.098652 0.189116 0.329353 0.527100 0.814612
2025-02-16 0.015044 0.043517 0.096503 0.189568 0.336014 0.544792 0.850954
2025-02-23 0.014791 0.044281 0.100175 0.199525 0.357184 0.583332 0.916551
2025-03-02 0.014516 0.044950 0.103675 0.209261 0.378177 0.621893 0.982626
2025-03-09 0.013112 0.042888 0.102011 0.210260 0.385642 0.640998 1.021621
2025-03-16 0.011259 0.039485 0.097575 0.206327 0.385253 0.648641 1.044538
2025-03-23 0.010836 0.039480 0.099578 0.213429 0.402263 0.681829 1.103877